Research: Articles


Selected faculty journal publications since 2010

ERYanqin Fan and Carlos A. Manzanares (forthcoming). Partial Identification of the treatment effect on the treated in difference-in-differences framework with repeated cross-sectional data. Econometric Reviews.

JMetYanqin Fan, Emmanuel Guerre, and Dongming Zhu (2017). Partial identification and confidence sets for functionals of the joint distribution of “potential outcomes”. Journal of Econometrics 197, 42-59.

JDEAmalavoyal Chari, Freeha Fatima, Rachel Heath, and Annemie Maertens (2017). The causal effect of maternal age at marriage on child wellbeing: Evidence from India. Journal of Development Economics, 127, 42-55.

JDERachel Heath (2017). Fertility at work: Children and women's labor market outcomes in urban Ghana. Journal of Development Economics, 126, 190-214.

Kwang Hun Choi, Chang-Jin Kim, and Cheolbeom Park (2017). Regime shifts in price-dividend ratios and JMCBexpected stock returns: A present-value approach. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 49, 417-441.

OERJorge Rojas-Vallejos and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2017). Tariff reduction and income inequality: Some empirical evidence. Open Economies Review, 1-29.

RIEDavid Oxborrow and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2017). Closing the small open economy model: A demographic approach. Review of International Economics 25, 44-75

Quant Mktg EconPat Bajari, Sean Chu, and Denis Nekipelov (2016). Identification and semiparametric estimation of a finite horizon dynamic discrete choice model with a terminating action. Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 14, 271-323.

EERCharis Christofides, Theo S. Eicher, and Chris Papageorgiou (2016). Did established early warning signals predict the 2008 crises? European Economic Review, 90, 103-114.

CJETheo S. Eicher and David Kuenzel (2016). The elusive effect of trade on growth. Canadian Journal of Economics, 49, 264-95.

JMetHeng Chen, Yanqin Fan, and Ruixuan Liu (2016). Inference for the correlation coefficient between the potential outcomes in Gaussian Switching Regime Models. Journal of Econometrics 195, 255-270.

Frontiers Econ ChinaYanqin Fan, Ruixuan Liu, and Dongming Zhu (2016). Inference for optimal split point in conditional quantiles. Frontiers of Economics in China 11, 40-59.

adv metricsYanqin Fan and Emmanuel Guerre (2016). Multivariate local polynomial estimators: Uniform boundary properties and asymptotic linear representation. Advances in Econometrics, 36, 489-537.

jMetMethodsYanqin Fan, Robert Sherman, and Matthew Shum (2016). Estimation and inference in an ecological inference model. Journal of Econometric Methods, 5, 17-48.

JMetYanqin Fan and Ruixuan Liu (2016). A direct approach to inference in nonparametric and semiparametric quantile models. Journal of Econometrics, 191, 196-216.

JJIEMatteo Cacciatore, Fabio Ghironi, and Yurim Lee (2016). Financial market integration, exchange rate policy, and the dynamics of business employment in Korea. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 42, 79-99.

JEDCMatteo Cacciatore, Romain Duval, Giuseppe Fiori, and Fabio Ghironi (2016). Market reforms in the time of imbalance. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 72, 69-93.

JIMFMatteo Cacciatore, Romain Duval, Giuseppe Fiori, and Fabio Ghironi (2016). Short-term pain for long-term gain: Market deregulation and monetary policy in small open economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 68, 358-385.

WBERElisa Gamberoni, Rachel Heath, and Emily Nix (2016). Bridging the gender gap: Identifying what is holding self-employed women back in Ghana, Rwanda, Tanzania, and the Republic of Congo. World Bank Economic Review, 30, 501-521.

RESYunjong Eo and Chang-Jin Kim (2016). “Markov-switching models with evolving regime-specific parameters: Are post-war booms or recessions all alike? Review of Economics and Statistics, 98, 940-949.

EconLetMarcelo Arbex, Sidnet Caetano, and Dennis O'Dea (2016). The implications of labor market network for business cycles. Economics Letters, 144, 37-40.

GEBXu Tan (2016). Information revelation in auctions with common and private values. Games and Economic Behavior, 97, 147-65.

JDemEconOksana Leukhina and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2016). Push, pull, and population size effects in structural development: Long-run tradeoffs. Journal of Demographic Economics, 84, 423-457.

JPETMurat Koyuncu and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2016). The dynamics of growth and income inequality under progressive taxation. Journal of Public Economic Theory 18, 560-588.

AEJ-MacroOksana Leukhina and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2016). Population size effects in the structural development of England. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 8, 195-229.

JIEMatteo Cacciatore, Giuseppe Fiori, and Fabio Ghironi (2015). Market deregulation and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union. Journal of International Economics, 99, 120-137.

MetricsJYanqin Fan, Sergio Pastorello, and Eric Renault (2015). Maximization by parts in extremum estimation. Econometrics Journal, 18, 147-171.

ERYanqin Fan and Ruixuan Liu (2015). Symmetrized multivariate k-NN estimators. Econometric Reviews, 34, 827-847.

Research in econMatteo Cacciatore, Giuseppe Fiori, and Fabio Ghironi (2015). The domestic and international effects of Euro area market reforms. Research in Economics, 69, 555-581.

JIMFFabio Ghironi, Jaewoo Lee, and Alessandro Rebucci (2015). The valuation channel of external adjustment. Journal of International Money and Finance, 57, 86-114.

IJCBMatteo Cacciatore, Fabio Ghironi, and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2015). Inflation targeting and economic reforms in New Zealand. International Journal of Central Banking, 11 (Supp. 1), 145-198.

JIEMatteo Cacciatore, Fabio Ghironi, and Viktors Stebunovs (2015). The domestic and international effects of interstate US banking. Journal of International Economics, 95, 171-187.

JDERachel Heath and A. Mushfiq Mobarak (2015). Manufacturing growth and the lives of Bangladeshi women. Journal of Development Economics, 115, 1-15.

RANDFahad Khalil, Jacques Lawarrée, and Troy Scott (2015). Private monitoring, collusion, and the timing of information. RAND Journal of Economics, 46, 872-890.

JBESChang-Jin Kim and Jaeho Kim (2015). Bayesian inference in regime-switching ARMA models with absorbing states: The dynamics of the ex-ante real interest rate under structural breaks. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 33, 566-578.

annals fin econKaihua Deng and Chang-Jin Kim (2015). Predicting stock returns: The information contents at different horizons. Annals of Financial Economics, 10, xx-xx.

MacroDynChang-Jin Kim, James Morley, and Jeremy Piger (2015). Introduction to special issue on the empirical analysis of business cycles, financial markets, and inflation: Essays in honor of Charles Nelson. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(4).

JEDCStephen J. Turnovsky (2015). Economic growth and inequality: The role of public investment. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 61, 204-221.

Research in econYoseph Getachew and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2015). Productive government spending and its consequences for the growth-inequality tradeoff. Research in Economics, 69, 621-640.

MacroDynCecilia García-Peñalosa and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2015). Income inequality, mobility, and the accumulation of capital. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19, 1332-1357.

OERJorge Rojas-Vallejos and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2015). The consequences of tariff reduction for economic activity and inequality. Open Economies Review, 26, 601-631.

EconLetMiguel Aramendia and Quan Wen (2015). Repeated Cournot Model with justifiable punishments. Economics Letters, 136, 171-174.

AERPat Bajari, Stephanie Houghton, and Steve Tadelis (2014). Bidding for incomplete contracts: An empirical analysis. American Economic Review, 104,1288-1319.

JMetYu-chin Chen, Stephen J. Turnovsky, and Eric Zivot. (2014). Forecasting inflation using commodity price aggregates. Journal of Econometrics, 183, 117-134.

ERTheo S. Eicher, Alex Lenkoski and Adrian Raftery (2014).Bayesian model averaging and endogeneity under model uncertainty: An application to development determinants. Econometric Reviews, 33, 122-151.

econometricaYanqin Fan, Robert Sherman, and Matthew Shum (2014). Identifying treatment effects under data combination. Econometrica, 82, 811-822.

genericYanqin Fan and Andrew Patton (2014). Copulas in econometrics. Annual Review of Economics, 6, 179-200.

JMetHeng Chen, Yanqin Fan, and Jisong Wu (2014). A flexible parametric approach to estimating switching regime models and treatment effect parameters. Journal of Econometrics, 181, 77-91.

JMetYanqin Fan and Sangsoo Park (2014). Nonparametric inference for counterfactual means: Bias correction, confidence sets, and weak instruments. Journal of Econometrics, 178, 45-56.

JMoneEconFlorin O. Bilbiie, Ippei Fujiwara, and Fabio Ghironi (2014). Optimal monetary policy with endogenous entry and product variety. Journal of Monetary Economics, 64, 1-20.

World DevRachel Heath (2014). Women’s access to labor market opportunities, control of household resources, and domestic violence. World Development, 57, 32-46.

JMCBChang-Jin Kim, Pym Manopimoke, and Charles R. Nelson (2014). Trend inflation and the nature of structural breaks in the new Keynesian Phillips Curve. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 46, 253-266.

review econ designQiang Gong, Xu Tan, and Yiqing Xing (2014). Ordering sellers in sequential auctions. Review of Economic Design, 18, 11-35.

JPopEconJochen Mierau and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2014). Capital accumulation and the sources of demographic change. Journal of Population Economics, 27, 857-894.

econ theoryJochen Mierau and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2014). Demography, growth, and inequality. Economic Theory, 55, 29-68

GEBMiguel Aramendia and Quan Wen (2014). Justifiable punishments in repeated games. Games and Economic Behavior, 88, 16-28.

JMathHarold Houba and Quan Wen (2014). Backward induction and unacceptable offers. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 54, 151-156.

MetricsJPeter Fuleky and Eroc Zivot (2014). Indirect inference based on the score. Econometrics Journal, 17, 383-393.


NatResModelingNina Sidneva and Eric Zivot (2014). Evaluating the impact of environmental policy on the trend behavior of U.S. emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds. Natural Resource Modeling, 27, 311-337.

AEJ-MicroPat Bajari and Jeremy Fox (2013). Measuring the efficiency of an FCC spectrum auction. American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 2013, 5, 100-146.

IntEconReviewPat Bajari, Phoebe Chan, Dirk Krueger, and Dan Miller (2013). A dynamic structural model of housing demand: Estimation and policy implications. International Economic Review, 54, 409-442.

RESYu-chin Chen and Kwok Ping Tsang (2013). What does the yield curve tell us about exchange rate predictability? Review of Economics and Statistics, 95, 185-205.

CJETheo S. Eicher and Monique Newiak (2013). Intellectual property rights as development determinants. Canadian Journal of Economics, 46, 4-22.

AEJ-MacroMatthieu Bussière, Giovanni Callegari, Fabio Ghironi, Giulia Sestieri, and Norihiko Yamano (2013). Estimating trade elasticities: Demand composition and the trade collapse of 2008-09. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5, 118-151.

RANDFahad Khalil, Doyoung Kim, and Jacques Lawarrée (2013). Contracts offered by bureaucrats. RAND Journal of Economics, 44, 686-711.

JMCBChang-Jin Kim and Cheolbeom Park (2013). Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 45, 933-952.

JETMatthew O. Jackson and Xu Tan (2013). Deliberation, disclosure of information, and voting. Journal of Economic Theory, 148, 2–30.

NZEPStephen J. Turnovsky (2013). The relationship between economic growth and inequality. New Zealand Economic Papers 47, 113-139.

JHCAditi Mitra and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2013). The interaction between human capital and physical capital accumulation and the growth-inequality trade-off. Journal of Human Capital, 7, 26-75.

JPubEconNeil Bruce and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2013). Social security, growth, and welfare in overlapping generations economies with or without annuities. Journal of Public Economics, 101, 12-24.

JIMFYu-Ning Hwang and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2013). Exchange-rate pass-through and the effects of tariffs on economic performance and welfare. Journal of International Money and Finance, 33, 81-102.

MacroDynNeil Bruce and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2013). Demography and growth: A unified treatment of overlapping generations. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 17, 1605-1637.

Frontiers Econ ChinaJesse Schwartz and Quan Wen (2013). A characterization for dominant strategy implementation. Frontiers of Economics in China, 8, 1-18.

JMetPat Bajari, Jeremy Fox, Kyoo-il Kim, and Stephen Ryan (2012). The Random Coefficients Logit Model is identified. Journal of Econometrics 166, 204-212.

AERPat Bajari, Jane Cooley, Kyoo-Il Kim, and Christopher Timmins (2012). A theory-based approach to hedonic price regressions with time-varying unobserved product attributes: The price of pollution. American Economic Review, 102, 1898-1926.

GlobalJEconYu-chin Chen and Kenneth Rogoff (2012). Are the commodity currencies an exception to the rule? Global Journal of Economics, 1, xx-xx.

JAppliedMetricsTheo S. Eicher, Christian Henn and Chris Papageorgiou (2012). Trade creation and diversion revisited: Accounting for model uncertainty and natural trading partner effects. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 27, 296-321.

JMacroTheo S. Eicher, Lindy Helfman and Alex Lenkoski (2012).Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian model averaging in the presence of selection bias. Journal of Macroeconomics,  34, 637–651.

EconLetYanqin Fan and Zhengfei Yu (2012). Partial identification of distributional and quantile treatment effects in difference-in differences models. Economics Letters 115, 511-515.

JMetYanqin Fan and Sangsoo Park (2012). Confidence intervals for the quantile of treatment effects in randomized experiments. Journal of Econometrics 167, 330-344.

Emp econJinho Bae, Chang-Jin Kim, and Dong Heon Kim (2012). The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S. Empirical Economics, 43, 617-649.

AERMatthew O. Jackson, Tomas Rodriguez-Barraquer, and Xu Tan (2012). Social capital and social quilts: Network patterns of favor exchange. American Economic Review, 102, 1857-97.

GEBMatthew O. Jackson, Tomas Rodriguez-Barraquer, and Xu Tan (2012).  Epsilon-equilibria of perturbed games. Games and Economic Behavior, 75, 198–216.

euro econ reviewSantanu Chatterjee and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2012). Infrastructure and inequality. European Economic Review, 56, 1730-1745.

Oxford Econ papersSerpil Tekin-Bouza and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2012). The distributional consequences of foreign transfers: Do they reduce or exacerbate inequality? Oxford Economic Papers, 64, 701-735.

JEDCManoj Atolia, Santanu Chatterjee, and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2012). Growth and inequality: Dependence on the time path of productivity increases (and other structural changes). Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 36, 331-348.

IJFChun-Hung Chen, Wei-Choun Yu, and Eric Zivot (2012). Predicting stock volatility using after-hours Information: Evidence from the NASDAQ actively traded stocks. International Journal of Forecasting, 28, 366-383.

QEPat Bajari, Jeremy Fox, and Stephen Ryan (2011). A simple estimator for the distribution of random coefficients. Quantitative Economics, 2, 381-418.

QJEPat Bajari and Greg Lewis (2011). Procurement contracting with time incentives: Theory and evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126, 1173-1211.

IntEconReviewPat Bajari, Jinyong Han, Han Hong and Geert Ridder (2011). A note on semiparametric estimation of finite mixtures of discrete choice models. International Economic Review, 52, 807-824.

JEDCPhilip Brock (2011). The Penn-Balassa-Samuelson Effect through the lens of the Dependent Economy Model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35, 1547-1556.

JIETheo S. Eicher and Christian Henn (2011). In search of WTO trade effects: Preferential trade agreements promote trade strongly, but unevenly. Journal of International Economics, 83, 137-154.

JAppliedMetricsTheo S. Eicher, Chris Papageorgiou and Adrian Raftery (2011). Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 26, 30-55.

RIETheo S. Eicher and Christian Henn (2011). One money, one market: A revised benchmark for the effects of currency unions on trade flows. Review of International Economics, 19, 419-435.

econometricaSerge Darolles, Yanqin Fan,  Jean-Pierre Florens, and Eric Renault (2011). Nonparametric Instrumental Regression. Econometrica, 79, 1541-1565.

JMetYanqin Fan, Matt Gentry, and Tong Li (2011). A new class of asymptotically efficient estimators for moment condition models. Journal of Econometrics 162, 268-277.

MetricsJChang-Jin Kim and Yunmi Kim (2011). Dealing with endogeneity in a time-varying-parameter model: Joint estimation and two-step estimation procedures. Econometrics Journal, 14, 487-497.

JEBOYoram Bauman and Elaina Rose (2011). Selection or indoctrination: Why do economics students donate less than the rest? Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 98, 318-327.

EconLetXu Tan and Yiqing Xing (2011). Auctions with both common-value and private-value bidders. Economics Letters, 111, 99–103.

JHCStephen J. Turnovsky (2011). The accumulation of human capital and income inequality in a two-sector economy,” Journal of Human Capital, 5, 418-452.

JMCBCecilia García-Peñalosa and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2011). Taxation and income distribution dynamics in a neoclassical growth model. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 43, 1543-1577.

JIMFAKM Morshed and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2011). Real exchange rate dynamics: The role of elastic labor supply. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 1303-1322.

JEDCStephen J. Turnovsky (2011). On the role of small models in macrodynamics. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35, 1605-1613.

OERStefan Schubert and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2011). The impact of energy prices on growth in a developing economy. Open Economies Review, 22, 365-386.

JDEStefan Schubert and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2011). The impact of oil prices on an oil-importing developing economy. Journal of Development Economics, 94, 18-29.

economicaStephen J. Turnovsky (2011). Stabilization theory and policy: 50 years after the Phillips Curve. Economica, 78, 67-88.

IntEconKar-yiu Wong (2011). The global financial crisis and China's policy response. The International Economy, 15, 31-47.

JMetSaraswata Chaudhuri and Eric Zivot (2011). A new method of projection-based inference in GMM with weakly identified nuisance parameters. Journal of Econometrics, 164, 239-251.

IJFWei-Choun Yu and Eric Zivot (2011). Forecasting the term structures of treasury and corporate yields: Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Models evaluation. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 579-591.

econometricaPat Bajari, Han Hong, and Stephen Ryan (2010).  Identification and Estimation of A Discrete Game of Complete Information. Econometrica 78, 1529-68.

JBESPat Bajari, Han Hong, John Krainer and Denis Nekipelov (2010). Estimating Static Models of Strategic Interactions. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 28, 469-482.

QJEYu-chin Chen, Kenneth Rogoff, and Barbara Rossi (2010). Can exchange rates forecast commodity prices? Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125, 1145–1194.

JMacroYu-chin Chen and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2010). Growth and inequality in a small open economy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 32, 497-514.

JDETheo S. Eicher and Till Schreiber (2010). Structural policies and growth: Time series evidence from a natural experiment, Journal of Development Economics, 91, 169–179.

StatMethAdrian Dobra, Theo S. Eicher, and Alex Lenkoski (2010). Modeling uncertainty in macroeconomic growth determinants using Gaussian Graphical Models. Statistical Methodology, 7, 292-306.

RESYanqin Fan and Jisong Wu (2010). Partial identification of the distribution of treatment effects in switching regime models and its confidence sets. Review of Economic Studies, 77, 1002-1041.

metric theoryYanqin Fan and Ramo Gencay (2010). Wavelet-based tests for unit root. Econometric Theory, 26, 1305-1331.

metric theoryYanqin Fan and Sangsoo Park (2010). Sharp bounds on the distribution of treatment effects and their statistical inference. Econometric Theory, 26, 931-951.

JMetXiaohong Chen, Yanqin Fan, Demian Pouzo, and Zhiliang Ying (2010). Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship. Journal of Econometrics, 157, 129-142.

RANDFahad Khalil, Jacques Lawarrée, and Sung-Ho Yun (2010). Bribery vs. extortion: Allowing the lesser of two evils. RAND Journal of Economics, 41, 179-198.

StatMethBryan D. Jones, Chang-Jin Kim, and Richard Startz (2010). Does congress realign or smoothly adjust? A discrete switching model of congressional partisan regimes. Statistical Methodology, 7, 254-276.

MacroDynMurat Koyuncu and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2010). Aggregate and distributional effects of tax policy with interdependent preferences: The role of ‘catching up with the Joneses’. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 14(Supp. S2), 200-223.

JEDCManoj Atolia, Santanu Chatterjee, and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2010). How misleading is linearization? Evaluating the dynamics of the Neoclassical Growth Model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 34, 1550-1571.

JIMFKeunsuk Chung and Stephen J. Turnovsky (2010). Foreign debt supply in an imperfect international capital market: Theory and evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 201-223.

JEmpFinKyongwook Choi, George Sakoulis, and Eric Zivot (2010). Structural change in theforward discount: Implications for the forward premium unbiasedness hypothesis. Journal of Empirical Finance, 17, 957-966.

JIMFKyongwook Choi, Wei-Choun Yu, and Eric Zivot (2010). Long memory versus structural breaks in modeling and forecasting realized volatility. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 857-875.

Emp econYi-Chi Chen and Eric Zivot (2010). Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: A Bayesian approach to structural break models. Empirical Economics, 39, 897-921.

JAppliedMetricsDrew Creal, Siem Jan Koopman, and Eric Zivot (2010). Extracting a robust U.S. business cycle Using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 25, 695-719.

metric theorySaraswata Chaudhuri, Thomas Richardson, James Robins, and Eric Zivot (2010). A new projection-type split-sample score tests in linear instrumental variables regression. Econometric Theory, 26, 1820-1837.

JFMBingchen Yan and Eric Zivot (2010). A structural analysis of price discovery measures. Journal of Financial Markets, 13, 1-19.